Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
